- Ms Lucinda Franklin, Research Fellow, HEARD
Ms Franklin provided the delegates with an overview of the current and
future trends in HIV/AIDS in South Africa. She focused particularly on
the demographic, economic and social impact of the disease and also
provides some suggestions as to the socio-economic determinants of
HIV/AIDS for KwaZulu-Natal. A comprehensive set of power point slides
is provided in Annexure Four
, therefore the minutes reflect on overview
of the critical points of the presentation.
HIV in South Africa
Statistics from antenatal clinics show that KwaZulu-Natal is the worst affected province in South Africa. Looking at infection rates by age ranges, it becomes clear that it is the economically active population, those between the ages of 20 - 35 years, who are infected, with infection rates at an alarming 30% in 2000 in the age range 25 - 29 years. In 2001 it was estimated that 4,2 million South Africans are infected, and it is projected that by 2010 this figure will rise to 6 million. The implications and impact of such infection rates are serious, and will be felt at all levels and in all sectors.
Demographic Impact
While deaths due to non-AIDS related factors have remained relatively
constant since 1995, deaths due to AIDS have been rising steadily and
rapidly during this time. By 2015 over half deaths will be aids related,
and as noted before it is the economically active population that are
infected and dying. The numbers of AIDS orphans is a growing reality
and concern - by 2010 it is estimated that there will be about 2 million
aids orphans.
Economic Impact
The economic impact will also be significant. Increased morbidity
and mortality is resulting in both a smaller and younger economically
active population. All levels of society will be affected, from the
individual through to government, and the resulting economic affect at
each of these levels has a compounding negative effect on the
macro-economy of South Africa. The details of the effect at each level
(individual, household, labour market, firm/sector, government) can be
noted in Annexure Four
(slides 13 to 17).
Social Impact
HIV/AIDS has resulted in significantly increased demand on the health and welfare system and it is anticipated that this will grow. It is anticipated that social services will find it increasingly difficult to cope as the demand increases whilst the disease affects staff levels and productivity. It is anticipated that HIV/AIDS will also impact negatively on the psychological well-being of society due to the cumulative effect of parental death, educator illness, increased death in communities and increasing numbers of AIDS orphans, as well as the inability of traditional arrangements to cope with the impact of the disease.
Conclusions
HIV/AIDS is the single greatest threat to development in South Africa and
the prospects for South Africa, and for KwaZulu-Natal as the province with
the highest rates of infection, are gloomy. The pandemic has already
reached very high levels in both KZN and South Africa and is set to rise
for several more years. The resultant increase in death will change the
structure of the population and will impact most severely on individuals
and households. The macroeconomic impact will be felt in the long-term.
HIV/AIDS is not simply a public health problem - the epidemic demands a
committed and innovative multisectoral response.
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