In this report, and as per the brief provided, an attempt has been made to trace some of the environmental vulnerabilities in the region, particularly in the face of changes wrought by climate, HIV/AIDS, varying institutional capacity and conflict and refugee movements. One of the central problems in writing this report has been the need to weigh scientific reasoning against the moral concern of those working as humanitarian agents in the region. The need for greater certainty and precision of future assessments and scenarios, a useful tool for those trying to alleviate chronic food shortages in the region and reduce future risks, has to be tempered with the current, available rigor of these models used to drive the scenarios of future vulnerability in the region. The overwhelming need for reliable and better science in the face of growing emergencies and concerns, has been, and is an ongoing dilemma. It is hoped that this report, raises some of the key issues for further analysis and points to some useful contacts and papers that may assist in future work.
Notwithstanding some of these concerns, environmental vulnerability in the SADC region has been traced. Potential increases in aridity and decreases in rainfall have been indicated for some areas of the region, with resultant changes in hydrological regimes. Impacts on agriculture and food security have been outlined with an important note that changes in rainfall and temperature may be offset by changes in CO2 that may temper some of these climate changes (favouring tree growth, enhanced yield in maize). The role of HIV/AIDS and migration was also discussed and here the uncertainty in the future is also difficult to call.
With all these issues in mind, the need for better adaptation and enhanced resilience both NOW and in the future is clear, particularly for improved quality of life for those most at risk in the region e.g. children. Trying to improve local understanding of biophysical vulnerability and how this may be enhanced/diminished by various activities remains key for those working in the region. The risks of future climate variability and other hazards, may not, however, be the most pressing problem for many in the region. There is therefore, the need to adopt realistic approaches in a changing environmental setting.
One way to enhance livelihoods, both now and in the future, is through diversification and finding ways for better spreading of risk. Some have called for such moves both in the region and elsewhere in Africa. The future of many in the region, it is argued by some, lies in labour-force participation outside of rural agriculture (Bryson, 2001). In the longer term, Devereux (2000b) also calls for “support to diversification away from precarious livelihood systems (agriculture and pastoralism) towards sustainable alternatives whose returns are not correlated with rainfall” (Devereux, 2000b, 14). Capability enhancement through human capital therefore seems vital (including literary, numeracy, and other skills, see Bryson, 2000). Such enhancement of human capital may help people to develop resilience to external shocks and stresses as highlighted in this report. This, however, will require institutional support at various levels and moreover the political will.
The one overwhelming requirement, after all is presented, remains, is ‘political will’. As de Waal (1997, 105 and cited in Devereux, 2000a), highlights in work in the Sudan: “There have been technical advances, but these have been largely meaningless without political commitment (in this case to fight famine)”. Deveruex (2000a) continues:
“What is uncontroversial is that the capacity to feed the world is not enough. Political will is also needed. As the balance of famine causality shifted decisively from ‘natural’ factors, so the responsibility for both creating and preventing famines became intensely politicised…It is the urgent responsibility of the present generation of national and international policymakers to translate one of the most remarkable achievements of the 20th century—the potential to guarantee food security, the right to freedom from hunger for all the world’s population (particularly for children and the elderly)—into a 21st century reality” (Devereux, 2000, 29, parentheses added by Vogel).
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