Possible changes in the biophysical environment associated with global environmental change have been illustrated above. For the southern African region, however, these form the stage upon which the human dimensions of change are enacted including those associated with HIV/AIDS, political instability, problems of good governance, globalisation and other economic changes. At the time of writing this report several accounts of the harsh reality of a food emergency influenced by drought and floods but also high prices for basic commodities, political instability in some areas, depleted grain reserves and other headlines appear daily in the media (e.g. “The Politics of Hunger”, Mail and Guardian, July 19-25, 2002). As indicated at the outset of this report, the details of such interactions in ‘the politics of hunger’ were not the precise brief of this report but their importance and influence on the environment merit at least some brief discussion.
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The impacts of HIV/AIDS on the environment
One of the biggest obstacles to sustainable development in Africa (see for example some of the UNDP papers on this topic,
www.undp.org/hiv/publications) (Table 4) is HIV/AIDS. The epidemic is also seen to be a hindrance to achieving some of the goals set in the UN Millennium Declaration (Loewenson and Whiteside, 2001) (Table 4). Several countries in the region are estimated to be affected by HIV/AIDS, for example, Botswana (35.80%), Swaziland (25.25%), Zimbabwe (25.06%), Lesotho (23.57%), Zambia (19.95%) and South Africa 19.94%) (Loewenson and Whiteside, 2001).
The human impacts of HIV/AIDS are numerous. Impacts on the environment as a result of HIV/AIDS (as per the brief for this report) are also numerous with several not yet fully understood. Some of the impacts on the environment and vice versa, as a consequence of HIV/AIDS, particularly for children, (e.g. Table 4) include increased numbers of the poor being unable to afford housing; seeking housing in marginal areas in those areas that may be possibly hazardous e.g. in flood line areas; drops in agricultural production; poor governmental service delivery in basic infrastructure and the associated increase in cases of cholera. Some of the more obvious environmental linkages that have been examined and that are relevant to this report are those relating to rural farm-children and farming systems (e.g. du Guerny, 1998).
Table 4: Selected UN Millennium declaration goals and the effect of HIV/AIDS
(Source: Adapted from Loewenson and Whiteside, 2001).
| Millennium Development Goals |
Effect of HIV/AIDS |
| Reduce income poverty (halve by 2015 share of the world’s people whose income is less than 1 $ a day |
AIDS increases consumption needs and depletes household assets. Labour losses reduce income (can push household incomes down by 80%). |
| Reduce hunger (reduce the proportion of people who suffer from hunger) |
Illness, reduced incomes, lower productivity of subsistence agriculture and crops increase food insecurity, especially for women and children. Food consumption in households falls by 15-30%. |
| Increase access to safe water (by 2015 halve the proportion of people who are unable to reach or afford safe drinking water) |
Illness, increased labour demands for caring and lost labour time for collecting water, especially for women. Human resources losses and costs in water supply services affect delivery and increase the cost of services to households. |
| Universal primary education (by 2015 children able to complete a full course of primary schooling) |
Education supply threatened by teacher absenteeism and deaths. Can lead to 20-40% reductions in primary school enrolment. |
| Improve child health (reduce under-five child mortality by two thirds of its current rates 2015) |
Infant and child mortality continue to increase for the next decade, possibly longer. |
| Achieve gender equality (girls and boys to have equal access to all levels of education) |
Girls are more likely to be kept out of school to provide care or when resources limited. |
| Improve lives of slum dwellers (by 2020 achieve a significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers |
AIDS reduces the ability to afford even the most basic housing by the poor. Pushes new households into poverty and reduces service delivery by governments. |
Using the farm household system approach, du Guerny (1999), for example, traces the impacts on both the household and the farm system of HIV/AIDS, some of which include:
- Reduction in area of land under cultivation
- Declining yields
- Decline in crop variety and changes in cropping patterns
- Decline in livestock production
- Loss of agricultural skills
- Impact on food security
- Heightened vulnerability.
Using such an approach, some impacts associated with HIV/AIDS can be postulated. An estimated 7 million agricultural workers since 1985 have died from AIDS in the 25 hardest hit countries in Africa. The impact and tragedy of these deaths are, however, not only borne by the immediate families but also have other knock-on effects (both nationally e.g. possible impacts on GDP in agriculture and also as indicated in Table 4 on certain household members e.g. women and children). Women whose husbands are migrant workers, are especially vulnerable through partners who may have other sexual partners; they may lose access to land amongst other outcomes.
Other nuances of possible impacts resulting from increased HIV/AIDS are those linked to the use of the environment. Illness and death associated with AIDS can reduce labour time (funerals), and hence less time to tend to agricultural and other activities; livestock management skills are lost; decreased management of livestock resources; crop failures including fodder reductions for livestock; decreased livestock products; loss or transfer of livestock (and in cases small stock e.g. chickens) from families; and associated overall loss of livelihoods (e.g. see Engh, Stloukal and du Guerny, 2000).
Finally an area where HIV/AIDS can have an immediate impact on communities and more particularly children, is by weakening humanitarian efforts during emergency situations such as that persisting in the region. Further reduced capacity in the region (several NGOs are already increasingly being pressurized to carefully consider relief efforts as they become constrained by possible conflict, mismanagement of funds and other problems) by AIDS, could disrupt future interventions and ongoing mitigation in the region.
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Migration within the region and the impacts on the environment
Another human-dimension issue in the region is that of migration and refugee movement. The issue of migration (both urban and rural), much like those highlighted above, is also complex in the southern African context. Movements of people between regions and areas, particularly those precipitated by conflict and other factors are an important concern for the southern African region. UNCHR estimates the 2002 refugee population in all Africa at approximately 3.3. million people, of which almost one third are hosted in SADC countries. Almost 90% of refugees are in Tanzania, DRC and Zambia. The UNHCR believes that the number of refugees will increase during 2002 (FEWSNET and SCF, UK 2002) but may be further aggravated by the growing food emergency.
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Compounding impacts associated with migration is the risk of increased disease.
If large numbers of refugees move, then additional stress may enhance vulnerabilities in the region. People displaced from their normal environments, weakened by hunger and crowded into refugee camps with often poor health facilities may raise the risk of such diseases as cholera, measles and other diseases (see for example de Waal, 1989). Despite the lack of detail that could be found on some of these consequences for the region, a local example from SCF points to some of the issues faced.
A rapid household assessment in Chihwiti and Gambuli informal settlements in the Makonde district, Mashonaland West during September 2001, highlighted some of the impacts associated with refugees (SCF and Farm Community Trust, 2001). Chihwiti has been receiving a number of new settlers ‘every week’ (estimates of 100 per week), many farm workers displaced as result of the current land reform programme, and there are concerns that “At some point the carrying capacity of the land will be exhausted, and the ability of existing settlers to support individual new comers will also be exhausted” (SCF and Farm Community Trust, 2001, 17). The recommendations included for this area in particular were to continue to closely monitor the situation, to note that the nature of the displacement will vary and to avoid only targeting new comers to the area (SCF and Farm Community Trust, 2001) for interventions and relief.
In some cases, it would seem, that falling gold prices, growing retrenchments, increased crime and xenophobia have acted as potential detractors to migration in the region. Despite these possible detractors, one of the most significant changes in cross-border migration in South Africa, for example, has been the dramatic increase in non-contract migration outside the mining sector (McDonald, 1999). Documented border crossings have increased almost seven-fold to over 3 million visitors a year since 1990. Undocumented migration has also increased, particularly from Mozambique (Minnar and Hough, 1996; Crush, 1997).
The focus of migration, with reference to this report, is whether migration may have an impact on the environment and whether the ‘state’ of the environment may impact on migration. In assessing this issue one needs to approach it from two perspectives. Migration, both urban and rural, is influenced by various socio-economic factors (e.g. employment, unrest and conflict) and biophysical factors (e.g. severe drought and floods). There is some evidence to suggest, for example, that periods of natural stress (such as floods and droughts) may induce some people to move so that they can avoid loss of life and livelihoods. Migration in the southern African region, however, has also had a strong historical dimension that exhibits the influence of a number of socio-political factors at play (e.g. pools of cheap labour to farms and mines in South Africa) in the region. A detailed investigation of both the historical context and current drivers of migration is therefore recommended.
One are in which migration may have an effect on the environment is through increased pressure on resources and the environment in general. Increasing demographic pressures as a result of migration, and other factors, can intensify changes in the environment. Marginal lands are sometimes occupied, but these may over time, decrease in productivity owing to increased pressures on resources. The debates on trends between population and degradation are, however, legion. Of interest to this report, however, are the suggestions that indigenous and other agricultural resource management practices, which evolved to suit historical rainfall patterns, may no longer be sustainable for a variety of reasons (see below). Thus vulnerabilities to varying climates (e.g. droughts and floods) associated with increased demographic pressure, may increase in the short term, before households and economies adapt to changing climate conditions (see Davies, 1995 and Benson and Clay, 1998).
As can be seen from the discussion, migration and the links to the environment are complex. A detailed analysis of migration, refugee movements and the environment, including impacts on children, therefore should be undertaken.
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The current complex emergency in southern Africa and possible future outcomes
The final section of this report includes a brief examination of food security and the food emergency in the region. Food security in the region is a function of biophysical ‘drivers’ or factors (e.g. rainfall, temperature, evaporation, climate, soil, surface and underground water) that govern food for consumption. Food security, however, is also very closely linked to those ‘human’ dimensions including markets, production, access to infrastructure and other resources e.g. seeds, irrigation, financial loans and a host of socio-political factors including the role of various institutions and policies that may influence food security. Most working in the food security arena acknowledge that these factors define what food there is at a given time and more importantly who gains access to food. In this final section, one cannot therefore unpack all these dimensions to food security and only some are identified.
In most of SADC countries at least 70% derive a livelihood from agriculture (Buckland, 1994). Data from Zimbabwe illustrates the nexus of deviations of rainfall (both in terms of total precipitation and timing) and food security. Between 1960 and 1992, for example, average annual rainfall for Zimbabwe was 662.3 mm. Of available maize yield data (e.g. 1969-1992) the yields parallel the changes in annual rainfall (2,4 t/ha recorded in 1986; and 0,4 t/ha in 1992 a severe drought year). More critical than the obvious shortfalls, associated with rainfall decreases in dry years, is the marked variability in both rainfall and maize production, highlighting clearly the very ‘risky’ environment in which several farmers (particularly small-scale farmers) operate (Buckland, 1994). Rainfall is, however, not the single determinant of maize yield and other considerations such as some of the other human-dimensions highlighted above, should also be considered (as is clearly unfolding in the country at present).
Vulnerability to climate risk is also not only limited to rural producers and populations. Christensen and Stack (1992) examined regional and national surveys of food security and delineated several vulnerable groups including urban unemployed, informal workers; rural communal farmers; landless, commercial farm workers; urban unemployed and informal workers. By comparing 2 cases, one which represents a medium level of population growth and medium economic growth (business as usual IPCC approach) and a continuation in current trends of social vulnerability, a declining share of agriculture in GDP and rapid urbanization is suggested. The second case is more normative, maintaining economic growth but with a low population growth. Per capita income is over a third higher than in the first case and much gain is in the agricultural sector (Achebe et al., 1990; Christen and Stack, 1993; Downing, Watts and Bohle, 1996).
The issue of food security in southern Africa, as shown here, is directly linked to climate change and variability. Recurrent droughts and floods have made farming, for both small and large-scale producers, a ‘risky’ operation with significant outcomes for livelihoods. Climate change scenarios have been presented, illustrating that shifts may occur in wetter and drier areas. Maize production impacts have also been traced here and elsewhere in this report. The physical environment is, however, only one determinant in shaping food security. Issues such as access to food also have to be considered. Here factors such as socio-political developments in the region, the role of HIV/AIDS and population dislocation may exacerbate vulnerabilities initially framed by climate variations. Having described some of the environmental factors predisposing people to heightened vulnerability and risk, attention finally turns to some suggestions for mitigation of such risks.
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