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Executive summary
Based on a national sample survey conducted as part of Afrobarometer Round 2, this report probes the public mood in Zimbabwe in mid-2004. It documents changes in public opinion since 1999 and compares Zimbabwe to other African countries. Mass attitudes are measured in the context of a country that has encountered severe economic and political crises during the past five years.
The Afrobarometer survey finds that:
On the economy:
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Zimbabweans feel economically deprived: more than half of all adults think that current living conditions are bad; and present generations think they are materially worse off than their parents.
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Four in ten Zimbabweans report that they went without food "many times" in the previous year. Rates of persistent hunger are higher than in any other country surveyed.
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More than other Africans, Zimbabweans are prone to hold government accountable for individual welfare. The most important popular priorities for government action are the management of the economy, unemployment, and food security.
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Zimbabweans rarely mention land reform as a priority national problem; three quarters think that land acquisition should only be done by legal means and with compensation to owners.
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Citizens give the government higher marks for combating AIDS than for creating jobs, keeping prices stable, or closing the gap between rich and poor. But the proportion is rising of those reporting they know someone who has died from AIDS.
On politics:
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Zimbabweans are losing faith in democracy. Expressed support for this form of government is down from two-thirds of citizens in 1999 to less than one half in 2004.
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If rejection of authoritarian alternatives is included, then deep commitments to democracy are down still further. Increasing numbers acquiesce to the idea of single-party rule.
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At the same time, political parties have not fully penetrated society; one half of all Zimbabweans prefers to remain unaligned with either ZANU-PF or MDC. Part of the reason is that three out of four think that party competition leads to social conflict.
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By a margin of more than five to one, Zimbabweans overwhelmingly reject political violence. Whereas MDC supporters are more likely to support violence in support of a just cause, ZANU-PF partisans are more likely to have actually engaged in violent political acts.
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Fewer than half say they trust Robert Mugabe and the ruling party. While hardly a strong endorsement of presidential popularity, these figures have risen since 1999. And they far exceed the small proportions who are willing to admit trusting Morgan Tsvangirai and opposition parties.
Explaining Mass Attitudes
Public opinion in Zimbabwe is therefore a paradox. While the economy has shrunk and hunger has become widespread, political support for the incumbent has apparently increased. The report ends by offering an explanation of this puzzle.
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First, some people - like party loyalists, military forces, and resettled peasant farmers - have benefited from ZANU-PF patronage. They not only regard the economy as having turned up in the past year, but they credit the president with improvements in their own economic conditions.
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Second, other people - especially the younger generation and rural dwellers - are afraid to express their true political preferences. Self-censorship is evident among those who think that the survey was sponsored by a government agency. They say they approve of the president when, in fact, they may not.
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Third, the most important factor is political propaganda. Since 2000, the government has mounted a comprehensive campaign to revive the nationalist fervor of the liberation war. People who trust the ideological pronouncements of the official government media are very much more likely to give the president a positive rating.
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Finally, Zimbabweans are sick and tired of the deadlock between the country's two main political parties. Two-thirds of all respondents in the 2004 Afrobarometer survey in Zimbabwe consider that "problems in this country can only be solved if MDC and ZANU-PF sit down and talk with one another."
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- 468Kb ~ 3 min (39 pages)
